On April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church faced a pivotal moment with the passing of Pope Francis at the age of 88, after a prolonged struggle with a respiratory infection. His death concluded a transformative 12-year papacy that championed social justice, environmental care, and a more inclusive Church, leaving a lasting impact on its global mission. Now, with the conclave scheduled for May 7, 2025, in the Sistine Chapel, the College of Cardinals—comprised of 133 electors—must decide who will become the 267th pope to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. The diverse composition of the electors, shaped by Francis’s appointments, sets the stage for a highly unpredictable election that could either extend his progressive legacy or steer the Church toward a more conservative path.
The conclave operates under strict traditions, requiring a two-thirds majority to elect the new pope. Francis appointed 108 of the 133 voting cardinals, prioritizing representation from the Global South over traditional European dominance. For the first time, fewer than half of the electors are European, with 18% from Asia, 18% from Latin America, and 12% from sub-Saharan Africa. This reflects Francis’s vision of a Church that mirrors its global membership, but it also makes the outcome harder to predict. The cardinals must balance pressing issues like climate change, poverty, and the Church’s stance on marginalized communities, all while navigating their own ideological divides.
One leading candidate is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the 70-year-old Italian who has served as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013. Parolin is viewed as a moderate who could maintain continuity with Francis’s reforms while ensuring stability. His diplomatic achievements, such as the 2018 Vatican-China agreement and improved relations with nations like Vietnam, position him as a strong contender for cardinals who value global engagement. However, the China deal has drawn criticism from conservative factions who see it as a concession to a communist government, which could cost him votes in a conclave where ideological tensions run high.
Another prominent figure is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a 67-year-old Filipino often called the “Asian Francis” for his progressive outlook and pastoral approach. As the former Archbishop of Manila and current pro-prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation, Tagle has pushed for a more welcoming Church, particularly toward LGBTQ+ individuals and divorced Catholics. His election would be historic, making him the first Asian pope and representing a region with a growing Catholic population. Yet, his progressive views might alienate conservative cardinals, raising questions about his ability to secure the necessary two-thirds majority.
Cardinal Peter Turkson, a 76-year-old Ghanaian, is also in the running, with a focus on social justice, climate change, and poverty—issues central to Francis’s papacy. Turkson, who previously led the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, could become the first Black pope in centuries, a milestone that would resonate deeply in Africa, where the Church is expanding rapidly. His moderate theological stance and global perspective make him a compelling choice, though his traditional views on marriage and homosexuality might deter more progressive electors.
On the conservative side, Cardinal Péter Erdő, a 72-year-old Hungarian, has emerged as a strong candidate. As the Archbishop of Budapest, Erdő is known for defending traditional Catholic teachings, particularly on family and marriage. He has openly opposed blessings for same-sex couples and expressed skepticism about Francis’s migrant policies, appealing to cardinals who favor a return to doctrinal orthodoxy. With experience in two previous conclaves and a background in canon law, Erdő is a formidable contender, though his conservative positions may struggle to win over the Francis-appointed majority.
A less conventional candidate is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the 60-year-old Patriarch of Jerusalem. Pizzaballa has gained recognition for his leadership in the Holy Land amid ongoing conflicts in Israel and Gaza. His diplomatic skills and biblical scholarship have earned him respect, and his election would carry significant geopolitical weight. However, his relatively young age might concern some cardinals, as a younger pope could lead for decades, potentially delaying future opportunities for leadership transitions.
The conclave’s outcome will depend on the cardinals’ priorities: whether they seek to build on Francis’s reforms or return to a more traditional framework. As the world awaits the white smoke from the Sistine Chapel, the new pope’s identity will signal the Church’s direction on critical global issues. Whether the next pontiff comes from Europe, Asia, or Africa, their leadership will reflect the evolving nature of a truly global Catholic Church, navigating an era of unprecedented challenges and opportunities.
